CAIC Info

How Coloradans Made Decisions During February 2026’s Dangerous Avalanche Cycle

Posted by: Therea Graven On: 04/21/2026

The 2025/2026 avalanche season was dominated by exceptionally warm and dry weather. In the middle of the driest winter in 50 years, an extended period of snow produced exceptionally dangerous avalanche conditions. The combination of ample new snow during a dry winter, unusually dangerous avalanche conditions, and a holiday weekend created a long and risky period for backcountry travelers. During this time, the Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC) increased its efforts to warn the public. Once the dust settled, CAIC wanted to know if their approach helped people stay safe. They turned to the Snow Pool to better understand how people got information and what they used to make plans and decisions during a very dangerous February.  

The weather through early February was exceptionally warm and dry. This produced a weak and shallow snowpack throughout the state, and the avalanche danger was LOW to MODERATE. A series of storms brought heavy snowfall and strong winds, building cohesive slabs up to 4 feet thick on top of a fragile snowpack. The result was a tricky Persistent Slab avalanche problem where slides could be remotely triggered, at times up to 1000 feet away. For 18 days from February 11 through February 28, avalanche danger was at least CONSIDERABLE, with 5 days of HIGH avalanche danger. 

CAIC responded to the rapid increase in danger with both official forecast products and expanded outreach. Forecast tools included Avalanche Watches and Warnings and Special Avalanche Advisories (issued on 11 days), while outreach efforts included proactive media engagement and increased messaging on social media platforms. The dangerous period in Colorado coincided with dangerous avalanche conditions and several high-profile accidents in other western states. This brought national media attention to avalanche conditions and avalanche safety, increasing the need for clear, actionable information. In Colorado, eight people were caught in avalanches during this 18-day period, and there were no fatal avalanche accidents. Sadly, a backcountry skier was killed on March 7.

This long and dangerous period, CAIC’s efforts to warn people, and relatively few accidents prompted CAIC to ask: What role did forecast products and public messaging play in how people understood risk and made terrain choices? 
 

To explore this question, we posted a survey on social media, and sent it to members of the Snow Pool (a research panel maintained by CAIC, Simon Fraser University, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research) and email lists maintained by the Friends of CAIC. We collected 357 responses between March 5 and March 21, 2026. The results are self-reported and not a random sample, but they offer a useful snapshot of behavior during a high-consequence month.

Among the 308 respondents who traveled or planned to travel in the Colorado backcountry during February, CAIC products were the primary tools people used to plan backcountry trips. Eighty-one percent used the CAIC website, 58% used the CAIC mobile app, and 53% used CAIC social media. Friends and partners also played an important role, with 48% citing friends or partners and 25% citing Friends of CAIC as primary tools. News media was less often used as a direct trip-planning source at 14%, but 89% of respondents said they noticed avalanche conditions being discussed in news coverage during February, suggesting broad awareness and amplification.

Bar chart titled “Colorado Backcountry Trip Planning Tools” showing the percentage of users who relied on different sources for trip planning. The CAIC website is highest at about 81%, followed by the CAIC mobile app at 58%, CAIC social media at 53%, friends or partners at 48%, Friends of CAIC at 25%, and news media at 14%. A CAIC logo appears in the lower right corner over a snowy background.


Among backcountry travelers, 92% said avalanche conditions influenced their plans or terrain choices. Among those who changed plans, 76% chose terrain with lower avalanche danger, 72% chose slopes under 30 degrees, and 70% avoided certain aspects or elevations. Those shifts closely match CAIC’s most repeatable public safety guidance and suggest a strong connection between messaging and decision support.

For CAIC, the results highlight the importance of continuing to refine action-focused communication, emphasize uncertainty as part of the hazard, and use forecasts, social channels, and media outreach together to support safer backcountry decisions.

Snow Pool

With more people recreating in the backcountry every year, it is increasingly important that we are able to share critical information about avalanche conditions and risks effectively with everybody. Please join Snow Pool to provide feedback on how best to communicate about avalanche safety.

Backcountry forecaster carrying skis hikes down a dry, south-facing ridge near Ashcroft in the Elk Mountains, with patchy snow on surrounding slopes and bare ground at about 10,500 feet.
February began with unusually low snow coverage across Colorado. This south-facing rib near Ashcroft in the Elk Mountains was already melted out at 10,500 feet on February 6.
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Backcountry skiers climb a ridge beside a large avalanche crown and debris on a steep slope near Marble Peak.
Just four days later in the Ashcroft area, dangerous Persistent Slab conditions developed quickly avalanches were remotely triggered from far distances. Near Marble Peak, Feb 12
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Wide avalanche path in a snowy alpine basin near Vail Pass, remotely triggered by snowmobilers from low-angle terrain.
On Feb. 23 near Vail Pass, two snowmobilers remotely triggered this wide avalanche from low-angle terrain. Both were partially buried, with no serious injuries reported.
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Two avalanche paths on the snow-covered face of North Battleship, remotely triggered by skiers from the creek below.
On Feb. 28 in the Southern Mountains, skiers remotely triggered two avalanches from the creek below North Battleship. Fortunately, no one was caught.
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